- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on September 7?6¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on September 7?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C or higher on September 7?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C or below on September 7?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on September 7?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on September 7?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on September 7?6¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on September 7?16¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on September 7?29¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on September 7?23¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on September 7?15¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a daily maximum temperature in Chengdu on September 7 most likely between 32–34°C, driven by increasing cloud cover and the onset of scattered showers that limit afternoon solar heating after recent peaks near 36°C. This transition from clearer, warmer conditions on September 5–6 explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 33°C and 34°C, with modest probabilities for 35°C reflecting uncertainty in precipitation timing and intensity. Official updates from the China Meteorological Administration and local observations will refine resolution criteria ahead of market settlement.