- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C or below on September 1?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on September 1?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on September 1?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on September 1?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on September 1?36¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on September 1?42¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on September 1?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on September 1?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on September 1?8¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on September 1?13¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C or higher on September 1?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Forecast model consensus points to a peak temperature of 34–35°C in Chengdu on September 1, 2026, with traders assigning 77% combined implied probability to these two outcomes. Late-summer conditions in the Sichuan Basin favor strong daytime heating under mostly clear or partly cloudy skies, with recent extended-range guidance showing highs near 31–34°C (88–94°F) amid light northeasterly flow and low precipitation chances. Key variables differentiating 34°C versus 35°C include subtle differences in afternoon cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and exact steering of any weak short-wave disturbances—factors that numerical models often resolve differently within 48 hours. Historical early-September climatology supports highs around 29–32°C, but persistent warm anomalies this season have kept readings 1–3°C above average, sustaining market focus on the upper end of the distribution. Updated short-range runs from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration will likely tighten the range ahead of resolution.