- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on August 25?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on August 25?7¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on August 25?35¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on August 25?25¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on August 25?6¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on August 25?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 40°C or higher on August 25?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or below on August 25?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on August 25?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on August 25?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on August 25?17¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent official forecasts from the Chengdu Meteorological Station point to a daytime high near 34–35°C on August 25, with scattered thunderstorms and variable cloud cover expected to cap peak heating under the influence of the East Asian monsoon. Trader consensus on Polymarket, however, assigns the highest implied probability to 36°C, reflecting uncertainty in model runs regarding afternoon clearing and localized subsidence warming that could push readings modestly higher. Historical August norms in the Sichuan basin hover around 30–34°C, with recent days showing similar variability; resolution hinges on the official maximum at the Shuangliu station, where humidity and precipitation timing remain the dominant variables. Updated model guidance ahead of the peak heating window could shift probabilities.