- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C or below on August 24?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on August 24?6¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on August 24?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on August 24?24¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on August 24?28¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on August 24?13¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C or higher on August 24?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on August 24?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on August 24?16¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on August 24?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on August 24?6¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Latest numerical weather prediction ensembles from the China Meteorological Administration and global models show the highest probability for a peak temperature of 35–36 °C on August 24 in Chengdu, reflecting the current positioning of the western Pacific subtropical high over the Sichuan Basin and limited afternoon convection. Steep daytime heating under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, combined with the basin’s topography that inhibits ventilation, supports maximums near the upper end of recent daily values around 32–34 °C. Model spread arises mainly from small differences in boundary-layer moisture and the timing of any isolated thundershowers, which could shave 1–2 °C off the peak if they develop earlier than expected. Trader consensus, expressed through closely matched implied probabilities for 35 °C and 36 °C, captures this narrow forecast uncertainty ahead of the final observational reading from the Shuangliu station.