- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C or below on August 24?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on August 24?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on August 24?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on August 24?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on August 24?23¢
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on August 24?49¢
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on August 24?25¢
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on August 24?5¢
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on August 24?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C or higher on August 24?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on August 24?2¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Forecast models from multiple sources (WeatherBug, WindBorne, Yr.no, and others) indicate a highest temperature of 18–20°C for Cape Town on August 24, 2026, under clear to mostly sunny skies with southerly to southeasterly winds of 7–13 mph. This aligns closely with the market-implied probabilities, where 19°C leads at 49%, followed by 20°C (25.5%) and 18°C (21.5%). Cape Town’s late-winter Mediterranean climate features a seasonal baseline high near 17–18°C, moderated by the cold Benguela Current and prevailing southerly flow that limits daytime warming. Stable high pressure and minimal cloud cover (near 0–2%) allow moderate solar insolation during the ~11-hour daylight period, supporting a peak around midday to early afternoon. No precipitation or significant frontal activity is expected, reducing variability from evaporative cooling or advection. Recent observations on August 23 show similar clear, mild conditions with highs near 17–19°C, and model consensus holds steady without major updates shifting the range. Measurement at official stations (such as Cape Town International) typically captures the daily maximum in this window, making deviations beyond 17–21°C unlikely absent unexpected wind shifts or cloud changes. Traders appear to price in this narrow, well-supported band based on the latest deterministic and ensemble guidance.