- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on September 7?5¢
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on September 7?11¢
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on September 7?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C or higher on September 7?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on September 7?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on September 7?6¢
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on September 7?18¢
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on September 7?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on September 7?8¢
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on September 7?28¢
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on September 7?29¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Forecast models from major meteorological centers indicate Beijing's peak temperature on September 7 will most likely fall between 30°C and 31°C, aligning with the closely matched market-implied probabilities of 28% and 30%. Early September marks the seasonal transition from summer monsoon influence to drier autumn conditions, with daytime heating driven by solar insolation and urban heat retention. Key variables include afternoon cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and any weak frontal passages that could suppress or enhance maximums by 1–2°C. Ensemble spreads in global and regional models reflect this narrow uncertainty range, with official guidance from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration expected to refine details through the final forecast cycle before resolution.