- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on September 1?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C or below on September 1?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on September 1?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on September 1?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on September 1?13¢
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on September 1?51¢
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on September 1?7¢
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on September 1?28¢
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on September 1?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C or higher on September 1?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on September 1?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a high of 29–30°C in Beijing on September 1 under partly cloudy to clear skies with light northerly winds and minimal precipitation risk. This consensus, reflecting stable late-summer conditions with daytime highs near seasonal norms, underpins the strong market-implied probability for 30°C. Minor model spread around 28–31°C accounts for the secondary positioning of 29°C and 31°C outcomes, while lower probabilities for extremes align with limited variability expected in short-range guidance. Updated runs from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration will provide the final resolution data.