- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 89°F or below on August 31?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on August 31?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on August 31?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on August 31?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on August 31?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on August 31?47¢
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on August 31?52¢
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 102-103°F on August 31?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 104-105°F on August 31?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 106-107°F on August 31?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 108°F or higher on August 31?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button. If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Forecast models from the National Weather Service and regional sources indicate a high near 101°F for Austin on August 31, with some guidance projecting upper 90s due to variable afternoon cloud cover and light southeast winds around 5 mph. These conditions create tight uncertainty around the 100°F threshold, as modest differences in insolation, boundary-layer mixing, and urban heat effects can shift peak readings between the low and high end of the upper 90s. With leading market-implied probabilities nearly even at 50.5% for 100-101°F and 48.5% for 98-99°F, traders appear focused on the narrow range of outcomes supported by current observational trends and the final few hours of diurnal heating before resolution.