- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 102-103°F on August 30?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 104-105°F on August 30?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 106-107°F on August 30?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 108°F or higher on August 30?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 89°F or below on August 30?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on August 30?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on August 30?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on August 30?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on August 30?13¢
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on August 30?62¢
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on August 30?23¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button. If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Consensus forecasts from the National Weather Service and multiple models indicate a daily high near 99°F for Austin on August 30 under mostly sunny skies, south-southeast winds of 5-10 mph, and minimal cloud cover, positioning 98-99°F as the dominant market-implied outcome at 61.5%. Persistent upper-level high pressure over the Southern Plains has maintained hot, dry conditions typical of late August, with dew points supporting heat indices near 105-106°F but little precipitation risk to suppress temperatures. This aligns with the 23% probability assigned to 100-101°F, reflecting minor upside variance in afternoon mixing or exact measurement sites. Lower probabilities for ranges below 97°F or above 102°F reflect the tight clustering of guidance around the seasonal norm of upper 90s, with no major model shifts or frontal intrusions expected before resolution.