- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 89°F or below on August 29?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on August 29?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on August 29?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on August 29?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on August 29?9¢
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on August 29?54¢
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on August 29?37¢
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 102-103°F on August 29?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 104-105°F on August 29?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 106-107°F on August 29?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 108°F or higher on August 29?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button. If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Forecast consensus from National Weather Service and other models points to a daily high of 98–100°F in Austin on August 29, 2026, under sunny skies with south winds of 5–10 mph and negligible rain chances. This aligns directly with the market’s leading outcomes of 98–99°F (53.5% implied probability) and 100–101°F (37%), as multiple sources including WeatherBug, Weather Atlas, and local observations converge on upper-90s to low-100s readings. Key scientific drivers include strong late-August solar insolation typical for central Texas, combined with clear atmospheric conditions that allow efficient daytime heating and minimal cloud cover to suppress temperatures. The seasonal baseline average high of ~95°F is elevated by persistent warm southerly flow and lack of frontal passages or moisture, keeping the surface energy balance tilted toward higher maxima. Heat index values may reach 106°F due to humidity, but the market resolves on dry-bulb temperature. No recent model shifts or unexpected developments (such as increased cloudiness or cooling advection) have altered the outlook in the past 24–48 hours, supporting trader confidence in the narrow 98–101°F band while assigning low odds to extremes outside historical norms for the date.