- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 95°F or below on August 25?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on August 25?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on August 25?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on August 25?15¢
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 102-103°F on August 25?70¢
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 104-105°F on August 25?13¢
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 106-107°F on August 25?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 108-109°F on August 25?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 110-111°F on August 25?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 112-113°F on August 25?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 114°F or higher on August 25?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Current National Weather Service and model guidance for Austin on August 25, 2026, centers the daily maximum near 102–103°F under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light southerly flow, aligning with the market’s leading 67.5% implied probability for that bin. August climatology in Central Texas places normal highs in the upper 90s to low 100s, and the current pattern of strong subsidence and minimal cloud cover supports temperatures at or slightly above the seasonal average without reaching the 104–105°F threshold priced at only 12.5%. Official observations at stations such as Camp Mabry will resolve the market; any late-day mixing or thin high clouds could trim the peak by 1–2°F while sustained sunny conditions would lock in the 102–103°F outcome.