This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Forecast consensus from the National Weather Service and ensemble models centers afternoon highs near 101°F in Austin on August 13 under a persistent high-pressure ridge, southerly flow, and mostly sunny skies, aligning with the market's leading 59% implied probability for the 100-101°F bin. This setup favors strong diurnal heating while boundary-layer moisture and modest model spread limit upside risk to the 38% chance of 102-103°F. Mid-August climatology averages about 98°F, so current guidance reflects above-normal conditions reinforced by recent 101-102°F observations and stable atmospheric patterns. Official verification will resolve the market later today.