- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C or below on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on September 4?14¢
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on September 4?41¢
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on September 4?37¢
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on September 4?9¢
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 34°C or higher on September 4?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent ensemble forecasts from global and regional models show Ankara's September 4 maximum temperature centered near 28–29 °C under mostly clear skies and light northeasterly flow, producing the tight market split between those two outcomes. Daytime heating under high pressure supports afternoon peaks in that narrow band, while modest differences in modeled cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing create the uncertainty separating the leading probabilities. Historical September averages near 27 °C and the absence of strong frontal systems or advection reinforce the focus on these adjacent thresholds, with final resolution hinging on the 12–18 UTC observations from local stations.