- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on August 20?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on August 20?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on August 20?44¢
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on August 20?48¢
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on August 20?8¢
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on August 20?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 34°C on August 20?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 35°C or higher on August 20?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C or below on August 20?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on August 20?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on August 20?<1¢
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent official forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and international models such as those referenced by the Met Office and BBC indicate a sunny day with light northeasterly winds and a maximum temperature near 31°C for Ankara on August 20. This positions 31°C and 30°C as the closest market outcomes because ensemble guidance shows minimal day-to-day variability in the current high-pressure regime, with surface temperatures modulated by typical August insolation and low humidity. Small shifts in afternoon cloud cover or wind speed could differentiate the exact peak by 1°C, explaining the tight 47.5%–43.5% split in trader-implied odds while keeping higher values like 32°C or above at low probability. Updated model runs tomorrow morning will provide the final observational data for resolution.