- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C or below on September 8?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on September 8?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on September 8?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on September 8?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on September 8?35¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on September 8?56¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on September 8?8¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on September 8?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on September 8?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on September 8?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C or higher on September 8?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent forecast model consensus from sources including ECMWF and GFS indicates persistent southwest flow, extensive cloud cover, and widespread rain across the Netherlands on September 8, which is suppressing daytime heating and capping maximum temperatures near or below the long-term average high of 20°C at Schiphol. This synoptic pattern, with dew points in the mid-teens Celsius and limited solar insolation, favors a peak around 18–19°C rather than warmer outcomes. Traders have priced 20°C as the modal outcome at 56.5% implied probability and 19°C at 35%, reflecting the narrow range of ensemble guidance and historical September variability, while lower-probability tails account for possible model shifts in the final 24 hours before resolution.