- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C or below on September 7?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on September 7?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on September 7?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on September 7?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on September 7?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on September 7?9¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on September 7?38¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on September 7?45¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on September 7?7¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on September 7?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C or higher on September 7?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Forecast model consensus centers on a peak of 25–26°C in Amsterdam on September 7 under southerly flow advecting milder air ahead of an approaching front. Recent runs from sources such as the GFS and ECMWF show afternoon highs reaching the mid-20s Celsius, with partly cloudy conditions and winds of 10–15 km/h limiting extreme heating while allowing sufficient insolation for temperatures near seasonal norms slightly above the long-term average of ~20°C. Minor differences in predicted cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and exact frontal timing create the tight 44.5% / 38% split between 26°C and 25°C implied probabilities. Later updates from official agencies like KNMI or ECMWF will refine the maximum before resolution, with any increase in low cloud or earlier precipitation likely capping readings at the lower end of the range.