- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C or below on September 6?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on September 6?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on September 6?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on September 6?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on September 6?5¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on September 6?17¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on September 6?51¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on September 6?27¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on September 6?5¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on September 6?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C or higher on September 6?2¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent short-range model consensus from sources such as GFS and ECMWF places the highest temperature in Amsterdam on September 6 at 21–23 °C under building high pressure, light southerly flow, and partly cloudy skies with minimal precipitation risk. This aligns with the market’s heavy weighting toward 22 °C (51 %) and 23 °C (26 %), as current conditions reflect a modest warming trend from cooler, showery weather earlier in the week rather than any anomalous heat. Historical early-September baselines for the city hover near 20–22 °C, reinforcing why probabilities cluster tightly in this range while tails for 24 °C or below 21 °C remain thin. Updated model runs and official observations over the next 48 hours will determine final resolution.