- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on September 5?43¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on September 5?50¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on September 5?6¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on September 5?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on September 5?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on September 5?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C or higher on September 5?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C or below on September 5?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on September 5?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on September 5?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on September 5?6¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Forecast models and recent observations point to a high temperature in Amsterdam on September 5 tightly clustered around 19–20 °C, producing the near-even split in market-implied odds between those two outcomes. Westerly winds are expected to advect cooler maritime air across the region after a warmer, rainier Friday, with daytime highs limited by partial cloud cover and modest solar heating under autumnal insolation levels. Multiple sources, including ECMWF-influenced and GFS-based guidance, converge on afternoon peaks near 19 °C (66–67 °F), consistent with the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 20.3 °C for the date. Light precipitation chances (around 10–20 %) and steady 15–18 mph westerly flow further constrain warming, reducing the likelihood of breaching 21 °C while making a drop to 18 °C or below improbable absent an unexpected surge in cloudiness or wind. The tight 49.5 %–43 % pricing between 20 °C and 19 °C reflects genuine forecast uncertainty in the final degree, typical for short-range temperature markets where small differences in boundary-layer mixing or timing of any breaks in cloud can shift the daily maximum by 1 °C. Official resolution will depend on the highest 2-meter air temperature recorded at the primary Amsterdam-area station (Schiphol) on September 5. No major model divergence has emerged in the latest runs, keeping the focus on incremental updates through tonight and early morning.