- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C or below on September 2?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on September 2?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on September 2?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on September 2?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on September 2?9¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on September 2?51¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on September 2?38¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on September 2?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on September 2?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on September 2?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C or higher on September 2?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Current forecasts for Amsterdam on September 2, 2026, indicate a daytime maximum near seasonal norms of 20–22°C, driving the strong market concentration on 21°C (50.5%) and 22°C (38.0%). Multiple sources, including ECMWF-influenced and regional models, project highs of 20–22°C under mostly cloudy skies with light to moderate southwesterly or westerly winds of 10–15 km/h. These conditions favor modest warming from mild maritime air masses without strong advection or clear-sky radiative heating. Overnight lows near 13–16°C and limited precipitation further support stable daytime peaks close to the long-term early-September average of ~20–22°C. Model consensus remains tight, with no major recent shifts reported as of September 1. This alignment of numerical guidance and climatological context explains trader preference for the narrow 21–22°C range while assigning low probability to outliers like 23°C or below 20°C. Updated model runs and official KNMI guidance ahead of resolution will be key watchpoints.