- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C or below on September 1?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on September 1?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on September 1?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on September 1?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on September 1?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on September 1?54¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on September 1?43¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on September 1?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on September 1?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on September 1?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C or higher on September 1?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Forecast consensus for Amsterdam on September 1, 2026, centers on a daily maximum of 19–21 °C under partly cloudy skies and moderate westerly flow. Multiple operational models and short-range guidance (including local high-resolution runs) converge on afternoon highs near 20 °C after overnight lows in the mid-teens, with limited diurnal warming due to residual cloud cover and onshore winds. This places the 20 °C outcome at the modal probability (54 %) while the 21 °C bin (42.5 %) captures upside risk if breaks in cloud allow brief extra insolation. Key drivers include the post-frontal regime following August 31 thunderstorms, which have kept boundary-layer moisture elevated and suppressed strong daytime heating. Historical climatology for early September shows mean maxima of ~18–19 °C, so current guidance sits slightly above average but remains well within the typical envelope; no warm-air advection or blocking high is indicated. Resolution hinges on the precise peak reading at official stations (e.g., Schiphol), where even small forecast errors of 1 °C shift the outcome between the two leading contracts. With the market closing soon, trader positioning reflects the narrow uncertainty band typical of 24-hour forecasts rather than longer-range variability.