- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C or below on August 31?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on August 31?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on August 31?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on August 31?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on August 31?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on August 31?46¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on August 31?49¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on August 31?6¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on August 31?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on August 31?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C or higher on August 31?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Persistent cloud cover, widespread rain, and southwesterly flow are keeping maximum temperatures suppressed below the late-August climatological average of roughly 21 °C. Official and ensemble guidance from sources including ECMWF, GFS, and national services (KNMI, Met Office, Yr) consistently project an afternoon peak of 18–20 °C under mostly cloudy skies and showers or thunderstorms on 31 August, limiting diurnal heating. Hourly profiles show the warmest readings occurring briefly near 13–15 UTC before cooler maritime air and precipitation arrive. This narrow temperature window explains why market-implied probabilities concentrate so heavily on 19 °C (40 %) and 20 °C (54 %), with only minimal odds on outcomes outside that range. The next model runs and updated surface observations will provide the final confirmation before markets resolve.