- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on August 30?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on August 30?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on August 30?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on August 30?6¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on August 30?55¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on August 30?38¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on August 30?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on August 30?5¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on August 30?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C or higher on August 30?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C or below on August 30?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Current model consensus from ECMWF, GFS, and HARMONIE runs positions 21°C as the most probable daily maximum for Amsterdam on August 30, with 22°C a close secondary outcome. Persistent cloud cover, light rain or showers, and moderate westerly winds associated with an occluding frontal system are limiting daytime heating and suppressing temperatures below typical late-August peaks near 22°C. Ensemble guidance shows low spread around these values, with minimal risk of stronger warming or significant cooling, aligning trader-implied odds closely with official forecast guidance from KNMI and Met Office. Updated model runs and any clearing trends in the next 12–24 hours remain the key variables that could shift probabilities.