- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C or below on August 28?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on August 28?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on August 28?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on August 28?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on August 28?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on August 28?13¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on August 28?34¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on August 28?38¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on August 28?12¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on August 28?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C or higher on August 28?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Official forecasts from the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) currently indicate a maximum of 22°C in Amsterdam on August 28 amid widespread showers and thunderstorms, with 90% precipitation probability and moderate southwest winds. Ensemble and international guidance (including Met Office and GFS-influenced models) show a narrow range centered near 22–24°C, reflecting uncertainty in the exact timing and intensity of convective cells that can suppress peak heating under increased cloud cover and higher humidity. This aligns with historical late-August averages around 21°C and explains the near-even market split between 22°C and 23°C implied probabilities, as traders weigh the balance between drier intervals allowing brief warming and the overall cooling trend from the incoming air mass. Updated model runs and KNMI briefings remain the key near-term catalysts.