- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C or below on August 27?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on August 27?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on August 27?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on August 27?8¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on August 27?22¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on August 27?36¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on August 27?24¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on August 27?10¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on August 27?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on August 27?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C or higher on August 27?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Forecast consensus points to a peak temperature of 26–28°C in Amsterdam on August 27, 2026, aligning closely with the market’s leading probabilities (27°C at 36%, 28°C at 24%, 26°C at 22%). Multiple models and official sources, including the Met Office and various meteorological services, project a daytime high near 27°C (roughly 81°F), well above the late-August climatological average of about 20°C but moderated by increasing cloud cover. Key drivers include persistent easterly to southeasterly flow early in the day shifting toward the southwest, combined with mostly cloudy skies that limit solar heating. Afternoon rain chances (30–60% in several runs) and associated cloud buildup further cap the maximum, preventing stronger warming. Recent model runs show stable guidance with only minor variations in timing of cloud increases or light precipitation, supporting tight clustering around the 26–28°C range. This setup reflects typical late-summer conditions at this latitude, where diurnal heating is strong but often tempered by Atlantic influences and frontal activity. Traders appear to be pricing in the narrow band of outcomes supported by current observational trends and ensemble agreement, with lower probabilities assigned to outliers above 29°C or below 26°C due to the consistent moderate signal. Updated model runs or real-time observations tomorrow morning will be the next key inputs.