- Will Jeff Beattie win the 2026 Hamilton East—Stoney Creek provincial by-election?20¢
- Will Heino Doessing win the 2026 Hamilton East—Stoney Creek provincial by-election?47¢
- Will Monique Taylor win the 2026 Hamilton East—Stoney Creek provincial by-election?22¢
- Will Pascale Marchand win the 2026 Hamilton East—Stoney Creek provincial by-election?<1¢
- Will Heather Curnew win the 2026 Hamilton East—Stoney Creek provincial by-election?2¢
- Will Wieslawa Derlatka win the 2026 Hamilton East—Stoney Creek provincial by-election?<1¢
A by-election for the Ontario provincial electoral district of Hamilton East—Stoney Creek is currently scheduled to be held on September 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Hamilton East—Stoney Creek provincial by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).
The Hamilton East—Stoney Creek provincial by-election, scheduled for September 3, 2026, features a multi-candidate field that has produced closely matched trader odds among the leading contenders. Recent nominations—including former MPP Monique Taylor for the NDP, city councillor Jeff Beattie for the Progressive Conservatives, and Heino Doessing for the Liberals—have introduced experienced local and party-linked figures into a riding with historically divided support across the three main parties. Limited polling, combined with by-election volatility and turnout patterns typical of off-cycle votes, sustain the tight positioning, while lower-probability outcomes for minor-party candidates reflect structural barriers such as ballot access and voter recognition. Upcoming campaign events and any shifts in party resources before election day remain the primary variables that could separate the front-runners in the final weeks.