- Will the Ornn H200 Index be less than $4.00 on August 31, 2026?6¢
- Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.00 and $4.50 on August 31, 2026?12¢
- Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.50 and $5.00 on August 31, 2026?38¢
- Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $5.50 on August 31, 2026?27¢
- Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.50 and $6.00 on August 31, 2026?17¢
- Will the Ornn H200 Index be at least $6.00 on August 31, 2026?8¢
This market will resolve according to the finalized Ornn H200 Index price for August 31, 2026. If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The resolution source for this market is Ornnai.com (ornnai.com), specifically, the H200 Index chart data available at https://dashboard.ornnai.com. The specified finalized daily value shown on the chart will be used for resolution. Daily data will be considered finalized once the following day’s data point is published. Resolution will occur once the specified data point is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to the latest data available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered.
Current H200 rental rates cluster in the $3–$4.60 range on neocloud and marketplace platforms, with on-demand medians near $4.3–$4.5 per GPU-hour as of late August 2026. The Polymarket’s heaviest weighting on the $4.50–$5.50 buckets reflects this level plus modest upward pressure into month-end. Key drivers include sustained AI workload demand for the H200’s 141 GB HBM3e memory and higher bandwidth versus the H100, which has widened the H200 premium over the past few months. Median on-demand prices have risen roughly 28% year-over-year, supported by expanding inference and fine-tuning workloads that benefit from the extra VRAM. Spot and community offerings remain cheaper ($2.50–$3.60), but trader consensus appears anchored to more reliable on-demand or neocloud tiers. Recent developments reinforce stability rather than sharp moves. NVIDIA’s August 23 notifications of >15% price increases on Blackwell and Rubin systems (effective 2027) highlight ongoing HBM supply tightness and strong hyperscaler demand, indirectly supporting Hopper pricing. No major new capacity waves or demand shocks have hit in the past week, and historical patterns show limited volatility in the final days of a month absent a catalyst. Blackwell ramp-up has not yet displaced enough H200 capacity to drive broad declines. Traders are therefore pricing in continuity around current medians, with the $4.50–$5.50 range capturing the balance between cheaper spot availability and firmer committed/on-demand rates. End-of-August resolution will hinge on whether any last-minute provider adjustments or demand spikes materialize before the close.