Florida Republican Governor Primary Margin of Victory
- Will Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor primary by at least 40%?44¢
- Will Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor primary by 35–40%?44¢
- Will Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor primary by 30–35%?13¢
- Will Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor primary by 25–30%?<1¢
- Will Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor primary by 20–25%?<1¢
- Will Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor primary by 15–20%?<1¢
- Will Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor primary by 10–15%?<1¢
- Will Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor primary by 5–10%?<1¢
- Will Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor primary by less than 5%?<1¢
- Will Jay Collins win the Florida Republican Governor primary?<1¢
- Will James Fishback win the Florida Republican Governor primary?<1¢
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Byron Donalds maintains a polling lead in the August 18 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary, driven by President Trump's endorsement, a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $10 million in recent reports, and name recognition as a sitting U.S. representative. The multi-candidate field—including Jay Collins, James Fishback, and Paul Renner—continues to fragment support, keeping Donalds' projected share in the mid-to-high 40s across July and early August surveys from outlets like Cygnal and Quantus Insights. DeSantis's decision not to endorse has added intra-party friction without materially shifting voter preferences to date. With early voting underway and the contest days away, trader pricing on Donalds securing 40%+ reflects the balance between his structural advantages and the risk that further vote splitting or late turnout shifts could compress his total below that threshold.