- Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?81¢
- Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?19¢
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Byron Donalds secured the Republican nomination on August 18 with a decisive primary victory, backed by President Trump’s endorsement and a commanding fundraising edge that deterred stronger challengers like Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins. Florida’s electorate has shifted solidly Republican in recent cycles, with the state delivering double-digit margins for GOP candidates in 2022 and 2024. David Jolly won the Democratic primary but enters the general election as a former Republican facing structural disadvantages in a state where registered Republicans hold a sizable edge. Recent head-to-head polls show Donalds ahead by five to seven points, consistent with trader consensus reflecting the state’s partisan baseline and the limited time remaining before the November 3 contest.