- Will the Republican Party win the FL-26 House seat?90¢
- Will the Democratic Party win the FL-26 House seat?11¢
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Incumbent Republican Mario Díaz-Balart faces Democrat Nicole Locklin in Florida’s 26th congressional district on November 3, 2026. Both candidates advanced unopposed from the August 18 primaries, clearing the field without notable intraparty challenges. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as Solid or Likely Republican, reflecting a district that would have supported the Republican presidential nominee by roughly 18 points under current lines and carries a partisan voting index of R+7. Díaz-Balart’s long tenure and consistent general-election margins in the district align with trader consensus assigning the Republican nominee a strong implied probability of victory. No late-breaking events or polling shifts have altered the competitive landscape in recent weeks.