FL-25 Democratic Primary Winner
- Will Oliver Larkin be the FL-25 Democratic nominee?12¢
- Will Jared Moskowitz be the FL-25 Democratic nominee?89¢
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Jared Moskowitz holds an 88.5% implied probability in the FL-25 Democratic primary due to his incumbency advantages, substantial fundraising edge exceeding $2.7 million, and strong support among early voters in a race against progressive challenger Oliver Larkin. A recent poll showed the candidates statistically tied overall, yet Moskowitz captured nearly two-thirds of early ballots while Larkin led among those yet to vote. Outside spending from pro-Moskowitz groups and the absence of a key labor endorsement for the incumbent have kept the contest visible in its final days before the August 18 primary. Prediction market pricing aligns with these structural and timing factors rather than shifting sharply on late polling noise.