FL-25 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory
- Will Jared Moskowitz win the FL-25 Democratic primary by at least 25%?39¢
- Will Jared Moskowitz win the FL-25 Democratic primary by 20–25%?24¢
- Will Jared Moskowitz win the FL-25 Democratic primary by 15–20%?16¢
- Will Jared Moskowitz win the FL-25 Democratic primary by 10–15%?16¢
- Will Jared Moskowitz win the FL-25 Democratic primary by 5–10%?6¢
- Will Jared Moskowitz win the FL-25 Democratic primary by less than 5%?5¢
- Will Oliver Larkin win the FL-25 Democratic primary by less than 5%?3¢
- Will Oliver Larkin win the FL-25 Democratic primary by 5–10%?3¢
- Will Oliver Larkin win the FL-25 Democratic primary by 10–15%?2¢
- Will Oliver Larkin win the FL-25 Democratic primary by 15–20%?2¢
- Will Oliver Larkin win the FL-25 Democratic primary by 20–25%?2¢
- Will Oliver Larkin win the FL-25 Democratic primary by at least 25%?2¢
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary for Florida's 25th Congressional District (FL-25). For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Recent polling has tightened the Florida 25th District Democratic primary into a statistical dead heat between incumbent Jared Moskowitz and challenger Oliver Larkin, with one late survey showing a 40-38 percent split and 22 percent undecided just days before the August 18 vote. This shift from earlier double-digit Moskowitz leads explains the elevated probability on "Other" outcomes alongside sizable volume on Moskowitz margins above 20 points, as traders weigh his fundraising edge, name recognition, and moderate district demographics against Larkin's progressive mobilization on issues such as foreign policy and healthcare. Mail voting underway and high undecided share introduce further uncertainty around final margin buckets.