FL-22 Republican Primary Winner
- Will Casey Askar be the FL-22 Republican nominee?4¢
- Will David Burck be the FL-22 Republican nominee?36¢
- Will Michael Carbonara be the FL-22 Republican nominee?49¢
- Will Richard Evans be the FL-22 Republican nominee?<1¢
- Will Terri Hasdorff be the FL-22 Republican nominee?<1¢
- Will Belinda Keiser be the FL-22 Republican nominee?15¢
- Will Michael Thompson be the FL-22 Republican nominee?<1¢
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
The crowded Republican primary for Florida’s 22nd Congressional District, set for August 18, reflects a newly redrawn seat stretching across Broward, Palm Beach, and Collier counties that favors the party by several points following redistricting. Multiple self-funded candidates—led by fintech executive Michael Carbonara, who holds the highest market share, followed closely by David Burck and education leader Belinda Keiser—have poured millions into advertising and ground efforts, while Casey Askar and others trail further behind. Recent polling shows a statistical three-way tie among the top contenders with more than 40 percent of likely voters undecided, and no major endorsements such as from President Trump have consolidated support. Late negative attacks, procedural questions around fundraising, and the absence of a clear frontrunner have kept implied probabilities tightly bunched on prediction markets. A strong showing in final-week endorsements, turnout among specific voting blocs, or last-minute revelations could quickly shift trader consensus ahead of primary day.