FL-11 Republican Primary Winner
- Will Carey Baker be the FL-11 Republican nominee?23¢
- Will Ivette Palomo be the FL-11 Republican nominee?<1¢
- Will Nizam Razack be the FL-11 Republican nominee?<1¢
- Will Joe Strada be the FL-11 Republican nominee?76¢
- Will Tim Wilkins be the FL-11 Republican nominee?3¢
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Joe Strada leads the FL-11 Republican primary market with a substantial edge in trader consensus, driven by his notable self-funding and campaign spending advantage in the open-seat race. Carey Baker trails as the main challenger amid mutual attack ads highlighting residency and policy differences, while lower-probability candidates like Tim Wilkins, Ivette Palomo, and Nizam Razack have shown limited visibility or resources. The August 18 primary date leaves little time for major shifts, with recent forum participation and ad activity reinforcing the current positioning among the field. Traders appear to weigh fundraising data and name recognition most heavily in this crowded contest.