FL-09 Republican Primary Winner
- Will Jorge Malavet be the Republican nominee for FL-09?<1¢
- Will Dan Green be the Republican nominee for FL-09?11¢
- Will Marcus Carter be the Republican nominee for FL-09?<1¢
- Will Justin Story be the Republican nominee for FL-09?<1¢
- Will Steve Rance be the Republican nominee for FL-09?<1¢
- Will Thomas Chalifoux be the Republican nominee for FL-09?27¢
- Will Ben Butler be the Republican nominee for FL-09?49¢
- Will Howard Steven Rance be the Republican nominee for FL-09?<1¢
- Will Jorge Martinez be the Republican nominee for FL-09?7¢
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Ben Butler leads the Florida 9th Congressional District Republican primary at 49.9% in the trader consensus, ahead of Thomas Chalifoux at 26.5%, reflecting recent momentum from high-profile endorsements including Rep. Anna Paulina Luna and his profile as a ninth-generation Floridian agricultural leader and businessman. The Aug. 18 primary occurs in a redrawn district with a more competitive Republican tilt and a crowded field of seven candidates. An earlier poll showed a statistical tie among Butler, Chalifoux, and Jorge Martinez, yet market pricing indicates traders view Butler's organizational edge, fundraising, and alignment with conservative priorities as decisive factors in the final days. Chalifoux maintains a solid second position while others trail significantly.