FL-04 Democratic Primary Winner
- Will LaShonda "L.J." Holloway be the FL-04 Democratic nominee?86¢
- Will Michael Kirwan be the FL-04 Democratic nominee?10¢
- Will Brit Robinson be the FL-04 Democratic nominee?3¢
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
LaShonda “L.J.” Holloway holds the strongest position in the August 18 Democratic primary for Florida’s 4th Congressional District. A mid-July Tyson Group poll showed her at 41 percent support, more than 30 points ahead of Michael Kirwan and Brittney Robinson, with high undecideds. Holloway benefits from repeated prior candidacies that built name recognition, particularly among Black voters who form a large share of the primary electorate. Kirwan leads significantly in fundraising but trails in public polling, while Robinson remains further back. Early voting is already underway with no major late developments reported that have altered the frontrunner status reflected in trader consensus.