FL-02 Republican Primary Winner
- Will Keith Gross be the FL-02 Republican nominee?24¢
- Will Lee Jones be the FL-02 Republican nominee?<1¢
- Will Nick Lewis be the FL-02 Republican nominee?<1¢
- Will Luke Murphy be the FL-02 Republican nominee?<1¢
- Will Jim Norton be the FL-02 Republican nominee?3¢
- Will Evan Power be the FL-02 Republican nominee?4¢
- Will Austin Rogers be the FL-02 Republican nominee?71¢
- Will Audie Rowell be the FL-02 Republican nominee?<1¢
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Austin Rogers leads the Florida 2nd Congressional District Republican primary field, positioned by endorsements from House Republican leaders including Jim Jordan, Guy Reschenthaler, and Tom Emmer, along with his background as former general counsel to Senator Rick Scott. Recent polling from early August shows Rogers ahead by double digits, while Keith Gross, despite substantial fundraising, has seen support decline sharply. The open seat, vacated by retiring incumbent Neal Dunn, features a crowded field ahead of the August 18 primary, with Evan Power and others trailing. Trader consensus reflected in current odds aligns with these late-campaign dynamics and the compressed timeline to voting.