FL-02 Democratic Primary Winner
- Will Yen Bailey be the FL-02 Democratic nominee?69¢
- Will Brice Barnes be the FL-02 Democratic nominee?3¢
- Will Amanda Green be the FL-02 Democratic nominee?27¢
- Will Nic Zateslo be the FL-02 Democratic nominee?4¢
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Yen Bailey holds the strongest position in trader consensus for the August 18 Democratic primary in Florida's 2nd Congressional District, reflecting her status as the 2024 nominee, prior ballot qualification through voter signatures, and established name recognition across the North Florida district. Recent second-quarter fundraising reports show Amanda Green leading in individual contributions, while Brice Barnes added substantial self-funding, yet these have not shifted the implied probabilities away from Bailey. Nic Zateslo and Brice Barnes trail with lower shares, consistent with more limited visibility and resources. With the primary just days away, market pricing incorporates the compressed timeline and absence of recent public polling on the four-candidate field.