- Will Avenir Rosa win the second-most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election?<1¢
- Will David Horn win the second-most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election?2¢
- Will Erika Kokay win the second-most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election?27¢
- Will Guto Felício dos Santos win the second-most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election?<1¢
- Will Professor Guilherme Amorim win the second-most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election?<1¢
- Will Tiago win the second-most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election?<1¢
- Will Leila do Vôlei win the second-most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election?36¢
- Will Bia Kicis win the second-most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election?30¢
- Will Marley win the second-most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election?<1¢
- Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the second-most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election?8¢
- Will Ronaldo Fonseca win the second-most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election?<1¢
- Will Sebastião Coelho win the second-most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election?<1¢
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Recent polling in the Distrito Federal Senate race shows Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) leading with 19-25% support, leaving a tightly contested battle for second place among Leila do Vôlei (PDT), Bia Kicis (PL), and Erika Kokay (PT), who register between 11-17% and remain statistically tied within margins of error. Trader pricing reflects this fragmentation, with the three main challengers holding the highest implied probabilities for runner-up status. Key factors sustaining the closeness include divided right-leaning voters between PL candidates, consolidated left support behind Kokay, and do Vôlei’s incumbent visibility as her term concludes. Upcoming campaign events, candidate registration deadlines, and further surveys through October could shift momentum by clarifying turnout patterns or endorsements among undecided voters, who comprise a majority in recent data.