- Will Guto Felício dos Santos win the most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election?<1¢
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- Will Erika Kokay win the most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election?15¢
- Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election?60¢
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- Will Ronaldo Fonseca win the most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election?<1¢
- Will Sebastião Coelho win the most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election?<1¢
- Will Bia Kicis win the most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election?2¢
- Will Leila do Vôlei win the most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election?23¢
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The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) holds the strongest position for first place in the Federal District’s October 4, 2026, Senate election under Brazil’s plurality block voting system for its two seats. Recent Datafolha and RealTime Big Data surveys from mid-to-late August place her at 19–25% voting intention, ahead of Leila do Vôlei (PDT) at 16–17%, Erika Kokay (PT) at 12–15%, and Bia Kicis (PL) at 11–15%, with roughly two-thirds of voters still undecided. Her confirmed candidacy announcement in early August consolidated right-wing support within the Liberal Party and aligned her with Governor Celina Leão’s ticket. Prediction-market pricing reflects this polling edge and name recognition, while the field remains fragmented among lower-polling contenders. Key variables ahead include further consolidation of undecided voters and any late shifts in party alignments before the October vote.