Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?72¢
- Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?28¢
- Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?<1¢
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Recent economic data and FOMC communications have anchored trader expectations around a pause at the 3.50–3.75% federal funds target range through the September meeting. Solid GDP expansion, resilient labor market conditions with stable unemployment, and strong productivity have supported the case for holding rates steady, even as inflation remains above the 2% goal due to energy price pressures from geopolitical tensions. The July decision to leave rates unchanged—with three dissents favoring a hike—highlighted internal divisions but reinforced the committee’s data-dependent approach rather than immediate tightening. Market-implied odds reflect this balance, pricing in limited near-term policy shifts ahead of the next FOMC gathering while acknowledging upside risks to rates if inflation fails to moderate.