Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)
- Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?1¢
- Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?<1¢
- Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?44¢
- Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?6¢
- Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?51¢
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Traders see the 50.5% implied probability on Pause-Pause-Pause for the July-October FOMC meetings as reflecting a resilient labor market and sticky core inflation readings that have kept the Fed on hold through mid-2026. The near-even 43.5% on Other captures residual uncertainty over whether a single 25-basis-point cut could still materialize if upcoming CPI or employment data soften more than expected. Key swing factors include the August and September inflation prints, nonfarm payrolls trends, and any shifts in the Fed’s dot-plot guidance on the neutral rate. With probabilities clustered around even odds, market-implied pricing highlights how sensitive the path remains to incoming data releases before the October decision.