- Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by August 31, 2026?1¢
- Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by September 30, 2026?3¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island. "No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
US-Iran tensions and a naval blockade have idled loadings at Kharg Island—handling roughly 90% of Iranian crude exports—for weeks as of early August 2026, elevating global energy price volatility and tanker insurance costs through the Strait of Hormuz. Military strikes on the island’s facilities earlier in the year targeted defenses without altering sovereignty, while analysts cite high operational risks and macroeconomic fallout from any seizure scenario as key deterrents. Current trader consensus assigns low implied probability to a control shift by the resolution date, reflecting stalled negotiations, European reluctance on escort coalitions, and Iran’s continued fortification of export infrastructure amid persistent but contained Hormuz disruptions.