- Will Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026 be less than 0.0%?7¢
- Will Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.0% and 0.3%?4¢
- Will Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.4% and 0.7%?22¢
- Will Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.8% and 1.1%?51¢
- Will Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 1.2% and 1.5%?4¢
- Will Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 1.6% and 1.9%?<1¢
- Will Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026 be at least 2.0%?11¢
This market will resolve according to the Eurozone (Euro Area 21) Q3 2026 GDP growth rate over the same quarter of the previous year (% change), based on seasonally adjusted data, in the Eurostat Preliminary Flash Estimate of GDP release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. This market’s resolution source reports GDP growth rates to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Eurozone GDP expanded 0.4% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2026, reflecting resilience to the energy shock from Middle East tensions despite downward revisions to full-year 2026 growth forecasts to 0.6–0.9% across ECB, IMF, OECD, and Consensus Economics projections. Weak PMI readings, softening industrial production, and persistent consumer pessimism signal moderating momentum heading into Q3, while German fiscal stimulus and any durable Iran-US de-escalation provide modest offsets. Market-implied odds favor the 0.8–1.1% outcome at 50.5% as traders price in a modest sequential pickup consistent with base-case quarterly estimates near 0.2%, tempered by risks of further energy price volatility and trade headwinds. Key near-term catalysts include August–September inflation and activity data plus the ECB’s policy path.