- Will Callegari win the most votes in the 2026 Espírito Santo Senate election?<1¢
- Will Leonardo Monjardim win the most votes in the 2026 Espírito Santo Senate election?<1¢
- Will Maguinha Malta win the most votes in the 2026 Espírito Santo Senate election?<1¢
- Will Professor Fabian win the most votes in the 2026 Espírito Santo Senate election?<1¢
- Will Renato Casagrande win the most votes in the 2026 Espírito Santo Senate election?97¢
- Will Rose de Freitas win the most votes in the 2026 Espírito Santo Senate election?<1¢
- Will Sergio Meneguelli win the most votes in the 2026 Espírito Santo Senate election?<1¢
- Will Evair de Melo win the most votes in the 2026 Espírito Santo Senate election?<1¢
- Will Fabiano Contarato win the most votes in the 2026 Espírito Santo Senate election?1¢
- Will Marcos do Val win the most votes in the 2026 Espírito Santo Senate election?2¢
- Will Rodney Miranda win the most votes in the 2026 Espírito Santo Senate election?1¢
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Renato Casagrande's commanding lead in trader assessments for first place in the Espírito Santo Senate race stems from consistent polling advantages of 24-31% in July 2026 surveys by Quaest and Real Time Big Data, far ahead of challengers like Fabiano Contarato, Marcos do Val, and others in single digits amid over 70% undecided voters. His high statewide name recognition as the recently resigned governor (April 2026), combined with prior Senate and executive experience plus PSB party infrastructure, underpins the 96.7% implied probability. The October 4, 2026 election features two seats, yet late-campaign events such as shifts in undecided voter preferences, unexpected endorsements, or turnout changes in key regions could still narrow the gap before resolution.