- Will Sergio Vidigal win the Governor of Espírito Santo election?<1¢
- Will Arnaldinho Borgo win the Governor of Espírito Santo election?<1¢
- Will Lorenzo Pazolini win the Governor of Espírito Santo election?25¢
- Will Ricardo Ferraço win the Governor of Espírito Santo election?73¢
- Will Euclério Sampaio win the Governor of Espírito Santo election?<1¢
The Espírito Santo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Ricardo Ferraço, the current governor who assumed office in April 2026 after Renato Casagrande resigned to pursue a Senate seat, holds a strong position in the October 2026 Espírito Santo gubernatorial race. Traders price him at 73% implied probability, reflecting his incumbency status and backing from the prior administration's coalition. Recent polling, including Real Time Big Data surveys, shows Ferraço leading tested scenarios, while other names such as Lorenzo Pazolini (mayor of Vitória), Sergio Vidigal, Arnaldinho Borgo, and Euclério Sampaio register lower support. The market assigns these and additional listed candidates probabilities at or below 50%, consistent with the absence of major late shifts in candidate fields or voter intentions ahead of primary conventions and the first-round vote.