This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 20 12:00 PM ET to August 22, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Trader consensus positions the 40-64 and sub-40 brackets as frontrunners for Elon Musk’s output over the August 20–22 window because his recent cadence has settled into a moderate range of roughly 20–25 posts per day, producing totals that align closely with those bands. The similar August 15–17 market already priced sub-40 at over 90 percent implied probability amid routine activity and no major external triggers. With Tesla AI Day falling on the 19th, any immediate follow-through discussion could nudge volume higher, yet historical patterns show Musk rarely sustains elevated tweeting without fresh controversies, earnings, or product launches. Traders appear to weigh the quiet weekend stretch and recent deceleration against the risk of an unplanned announcement breaking the deadlock.