This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 14 12:00 PM ET to August 21, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Elon Musk's consistent high-volume activity on X underpins the tight clustering of trader sentiment around the 160–219 tweet range for the coming week. His baseline of 25–35 posts daily, driven by business updates from Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI plus real-time commentary, has produced weekly totals in this band during routine periods. The narrow spreads among the top three outcomes highlight uncertainty over potential spikes from major announcements or lulls without breaking news, with historical patterns showing variability based on company milestones or external events. Traders weigh these dynamics against Musk's history of engagement surges, creating a competitive market where modest shifts in daily pace could tip resolution between adjacent brackets.