This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 11 12:00 PM ET to August 18, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Elon Musk’s established posting cadence on X, fueled by real-time commentary on xAI model releases like Grok 4.6 and 4.7, Tesla and SpaceX updates, and rapid replies to trending topics, underpins trader consensus around the 180-199 tweet range for August 11-18. Recent days show sustained activity averaging roughly 25-30 posts daily during business-focused stretches, aligning with the market’s tight clustering between 160-219. With no singular high-profile catalyst yet dominating the period, the distribution reflects historical weekly totals that fluctuate based on news volume and his selective engagement style rather than uniform daily output. Upcoming chart updates or major announcements could still shift momentum in the final days.