This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between August 18, 12:00 PM ET and August 25, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, Truth Social itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Trump's Truth Social activity has averaged roughly 18-19 posts daily through mid-2026, implying a weekly baseline near 126-133, yet the market shows a tight distribution with 200+ posts leading at 22% and the 160-179 range at 17.5%. This spread reflects uncertainty over whether routine volume will hold or accelerate amid the approach of November midterm elections, ongoing policy announcements, and reactions to the early-August launch of Truth API plus the ensuing lawsuit challenging paid early access to his feed. Scheduled events or campaign messaging in the resolution window could push totals higher, while quieter periods would favor mid-range outcomes around historical norms.