Core PCE YoY - July 2026
- Will Core PCE YoY be 3.3% in July?72¢
- Will Core PCE YoY be 3.4% in July?<1¢
- Will Core PCE YoY be 3.5% in July?<1¢
- Will Core PCE YoY be 3.6% or more in July?<1¢
- Will Core PCE YoY be 3.0% or less in July?<1¢
- Will Core PCE YoY be 3.1% in July?<1¢
- Will Core PCE YoY be 3.2% in July?28¢
This is a market about percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure. If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Recent June 2026 core PCE data printed at 3.3% year-over-year, matching consensus and reflecting a modest 0.1 percentage point decline from May amid stable shelter costs and subdued goods prices. With the July reading due August 26, trader-implied probabilities heavily favor 3.3% (71.5%) or 3.2% (28.5%), as forward-looking indicators such as the latest CPI components and wage trends point to limited further deceleration before the next FOMC meeting. Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target continues to anchor expectations, while any surprise downside in services or energy pass-through could shift odds modestly toward 3.2%. Market pricing reflects real-capital consensus on these near-term dynamics.